Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have likely expended large portions of their Soviet-era stocks of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells. The relevant statement was made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
According the analysts, artillery ammunition shortages and delays in the provision of Western security assistance may delay future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
“Artillery shortages and delays in Western aid will very likely decrease Ukraine’s ability to plan and prepare for these actions. Delays in concrete Ukrainian operational planning and the materiel necessary for counteroffensive preparations will likely in turn delay 2024 counteroffensive operations,” the report states.
Referring to an interview with Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Grouping of Troops, the ISW mentioned that Ukrainian forces had shortages of 122mm and 152mm shells along the entire frontline. The shortages are prompting Ukrainian forces to redistribute artillery ammunition and replan military tasks, Tarnavskyi noted.
In his words, Russian forces are also having issues with artillery ammunition, although Ukrainian and Western officials have reportedly assessed that the Russian forces are currently conducting artillery fire at a rate five to seven times greater than the Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister General Ivan Havryliuk also acknowledged that Ukrainian artillery ammunition shortages would continue.
“It is unclear what delays or impediments there may be in Ukrainian and Western efforts to source 122mm and 152mm shells and how any such delays may be contributing to current Ukrainian shortages. Ukrainian forces are increasingly using Western-provided 155mm artillery systems along the front, and possible delays in Western security assistance may impact available supplies of 155mm shells, although US assistance packages have recently included 155mm shells,” the ISW added.
Referring to Havryliuk, the analysts pointed out that Ukraine is currently focusing on the domestic production of drones to offset artillery shortages and is planning to produce 155mm ammunition in Ukraine with Western companies in 2024.
“Artillery shortages and delays in Western security assistance will create uncertainty in Ukrainian operational plans and likely prompt Ukrainian forces to conserve resources, which may force Ukrainian forces to make tough decisions about prioritizing certain sectors of the front over sectors where limited territorial setbacks are least damaging,” the ISW concluded.
source ukrinform